Not everything that can be counted, counts
More than 30 years have passed since I was a child who made freaky calculations with the vehicles license plates to find some revealing patterns.
In the same period, Football became my passion, which I combined the enthusiasm for Numbers in a very unusual way.
I simulated Italian Serie A just after the release of the new season calendar, which I bought in pocket version at newsstands.
I ran the match results with pen and paper for observing the possible final standings.
Just like a Monte Carlo Human Simulator.
I also satisfied my thirst for numbers with the stats on the players stickers album and the Football Almanac.
Buy low and Sell high
More than 20 years have passed since I discovered Football Manager, a soccer management game I played for about a decade.
I had found a way to test my passion in the transfer market: negotiations, agreements and value of players grabbed my attention.
The goal was to raise underrated low-tier teams from the stables to the stars and buy players below the fair value for selling them above it.
The enthusiasm for Value Investing was growing silently.
In the same years, I got confirmation by playing Fantasy Football with my friends.
During the draft and the players trading, I always tried to buy players below the fair price.
Poker and Probability
More than 10 years have passed since I lost interest in Football during the online boom of Texas Hold’em.
I remember that, as a teenager, occasions to play cards with family were frequent enough to sharpen my memory and calculation skills.
Thus, thanks to online poker, I started from where I left off, and I was able to play millions of hands, both in Sit and Go and Cash Game mode.
The main focus was on positive expected value, robust bankroll management and embracing variance with a stronger mindset over the time.
During the same period, I was also a user of online poker communities to discuss the math and thinking process behind the hands played.
Inside one of those, discovering the works of Nassim N. Taleb was an unexpected gift.
Thanks to him, I also became aware of a Fractal view of financial markets by Benoit B. Mandelbrot. What an aha moment it was!
Back to the Football
More than 5 years have passed since I watch “Moneyball”, a Baseball movie about a revolutionary approach to scouting and analyzing players.
It brought me again close to the Football for looking at with new eyes.
I started swimming far and wide in Soccermetrics communities, discovering innovative applications and enlightening books like:
“Numbers Game” and “Soccermatics”.
The insights found within helped me in the analysis of football matches I did for online Fantasy Football contests.
Buy and Hold
Furthermore, I realized that the metrics I used to pick players for my Fantasy teams were also useful for the odds compiling of matches.
So, the next stop was Football Betting.
Value Betting, to be honest.
The key pillar of this strategy is similar to that of Value Investing, the successful investment approach of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
Trying to stand on the shoulders of these giants, I took inspiration from their methods to develop Value Betting strategies on Football Draws.