Is the underdog happy to settle for a draw or is it too weak and will play to avoid a defeat?
I simply believe it is an underestimated underdog as well as its home advantage.
Where do the results come from?
The results come from the Pinnacle’s closing odds.
You can bet on the most efficient odds from the sharpest bookmaker and still make a profit.
What are the real odds?
You will always know the real odds by the percentage of bets won (32% -> 3.125) and the average closing odds (3.55) to estimate the edge.
How many units do you need to bet with this strategy?
You can use the Maximum DrawDown (-23.5 units) to set the units number well above it to value bet with a wide margin of safety. Since you could face a bad run of 23.5 units or more, it would be prudent to have an additional units number well above the Maximum Drawdown. Otherwise, you might miss the positive expected returns of the system due to an early exit from the investment and you would not have enough money to keep betting at the same pace without changing the staking plan.
What is the Market composition?
The 50 best leagues in the world are filtered to select games that match the strategy criteria.
Most of the games come from the leagues shown in the table above.
Do you want to bet on Draws?
I released the strategy on Betaminic.com and it is running in real-time.
Register on Betaminic.com for free.
The Weak Underdog Home Teams is in the Public Strategies.
Select the strategy and enable the option to receive the picks.
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Bet on the games you receive via e-mail in your inbox, or
let BF Bot Manager place the bets in Betfair and do the work for you.
May your Bankroll grow,
in the name of Draw