Betting on Draws as a Value Investment

Who likes to bet on a football match by hoping that nothing happens?

Who likes to cheer on a boring 0–0?

Betting on draws is not an attractive move.

The punters love to bet on winners.

Amateur Bettors

Most of them are recreational punters who love to pick winners. They want to share the success with their friends and even better if the winner is the team they support.

It is also a matter of ego to say: I was right!

It is not about betting on the winner only as a favourite. Even the underdog high odds are attractive in order of a big reward.

Those are all choices far from the logic of a value bet made to get a profit.

They emotionally bet to get emotions and only then they justify the choice with logic.

The bookmakers know that very well.

If punters bet very much on the winning teams, the bookmaker have to revise down the odds to attract money on the draw. However, despite the dropping oddsthe bettors continue to bet on the winners to support the choice they made previously.

Great news for the draw!

The odds are going up, above the fair odds and good enough for a value investment.

More people do the same thing the less valuable it is and more valuable it is the different thing: betting on draws.

Big Spenders

Big Sharp Spenders can create other chances for value betting on draws.

They are very good bettors with a large bankroll who bet so much money to move the odds line in their favour. By placing big losing bets on the worthless odds of a winning team, they intentionally increase the opponent ones. At the right time, the Big Spenders will place a value bet on the opponent juicy odds that will make a long term profit, despite the first losing bets. As a result, the bookmaker will adjust the line due to big money on winners and it will increase the draw odds.

Once again, it is good news for value betting on draws.


Other opportunities to bet on draws can arise when the bookmaker makes public the odds for each outcome.

Although the bookies use sophisticated algorithms for calculating the fair odds of draws, an accurate estimation is still difficult for some reasons: such as the rarity of the event, a weakness in their formulas (e.g. Poisson distribution), a weighted move to not offer fair odds.

How many options for value betting on draws!

The wise punter has no choice but to identify them.

Close Menu