Back to the Future of Draws

Thanks to some typical behavioural patterns, amateur bettors, big spenders, pro tipsters and bookmakers can make betting on draws a good value investment.

Their recurring behaviours have survived to these days and there are no changes on the horizon.

They keep moving in their comfort zone.

The nature of their behaviours does not change over time as well as the context in which it triggers: Football.

As a result, I think that those behavioural patterns will continue to shape the future.

Therefore, all that remains is to pay attention to the past for observing what has survived.

Because if history repeats itself, the past is the best indicator to develop long term value betting strategies on draws.

Looking back for moving forward

Firstly, the strategies must have worked in the far past to avoid overfitting.

For testing, it is useful to take random samples and subsamples from old seasons data by excluding some of the most recent seasons from the data set.

Secondly, the strategies must have worked in the recent past to prove survival to these days.

Last but not least, all football leagues must be taken into account to prove large-scale dissemination of behavioural patterns.

Covering all the football leagues is equally necessary for not falling into the cherry-picking trap. It is about not selecting only those leagues useful to confirm the idea behind the strategy by discarding the ones that could contradict that idea.

By following these guidelines to develop strategies, I used a database with more than 100,000 matches played in the top 50 leagues and the Pinnacle opening odds from 2012 to 2019. Instead, the results come from the Pinnacle closing odds.

I developed value betting strategies on draws by observing several types of football matches.

It was like taking pictures.

I observed the draws from different angles with new eyes for every shoot.

It was like being in the right place at the right time for taking snapshots of typical football matches.


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