A Wide Moat around the Castle of Draws

Can you understand the economics of a product five years from now?

You understand a product, what it does and how it works.

The hard part is thinking about where it will be in five years.

Treat your draws like a business.

Does it have a durable competitive advantage?

Does it have honest and competent management?

Does it have a bargain price as a margin of safety?

A margin of safety is achieved when draws are wagered at odds sufficiently above the fair price to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in an unpredictable and complex football betting market.